{"id":755,"date":"2026-02-03T12:06:02","date_gmt":"2026-02-03T12:06:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/radioestacion.com.py\/?p=755"},"modified":"2026-02-03T12:06:03","modified_gmt":"2026-02-03T12:06:03","slug":"reforma-de-caja-fiscal-contendria-crisis-por-solo-5-anos-indica-estudio","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/radioestacion.com.py\/index.php\/2026\/02\/03\/reforma-de-caja-fiscal-contendria-crisis-por-solo-5-anos-indica-estudio\/","title":{"rendered":"Reforma de Caja Fiscal contendr\u00eda crisis por solo 5 a\u00f1os, indica estudio"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

El estudio actuarial de la Caja Fiscal evidencia que el proyecto de reforma del MEF solo contendr\u00e1 el d\u00e9ficit por unos 4 a 5 a\u00f1os m\u00e1s. Expertos afirman que crisis quedar\u00eda para siguiente gobierno.<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

El informe actuarial del Sistema de Pensiones y Jubilaciones del sector p\u00fablico, m\u00e1s conocido como la Caja Fiscal, elaborado por el Ministerio de Econom\u00eda y Finanzas (MEF), admite que la reforma previsional impulsada por el propio Poder Ejecutivo solo permitir\u00eda reducir el d\u00e9ficit del sistema en un porcentaje y en el corto plazo, pero no eliminar\u00e1 los riesgos estructurales que comprometen su sostenibilidad de largo plazo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En ese sentido, en el documento se plantea un escenario de reforma que logra reducir el d\u00e9ficit en alrededor del 61,7% y generar un ahorro promedio anual estimado en USD 573 millones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sin embargo, el propio informe evidencia que la reforma solo implicar\u00e1 una mejora parcial frente a un esquema que hoy es financieramente inviable y que permitir\u00e1 que el fondo de reserva sea preservado por un periodo de cuatro a cinco a\u00f1os m\u00e1s o hasta el 2032 o 2033. Sin la reforma, en tanto, se estima que los excedentes se agotar\u00e1n entre 2027 y 2028.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEstos ajustes reducen el d\u00e9ficit actuarial en un 61,7%, pasando de USD 796 millones a USD 306 millones en el periodo comprendido entre 2027 y 2031, generando un ahorro anual para el Tesoro de USD 573 millones. Estas medidas optimizan el gasto y permiten postergar el agotamiento de los recursos excedentes del Programa Civil hasta el 2032\u201d, se\u00f1ala.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Uno de los principales factores de vulnerabilidad que indica es el riesgo demogr\u00e1fico debido al envejecimiento de la poblaci\u00f3n que se espera y a la ca\u00edda sostenida en la relaci\u00f3n entre afiliados activos y pasivos. Recuerda que, para que haya un equilibrio financiero, el sistema requerir\u00eda al menos cinco aportantes por cada jubilado cuando en la actualidad la relaci\u00f3n ronda en apenas tres por jubilado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tambi\u00e9n identifica un riesgo fiscal que apunta a la necesidad de utilizar recursos del Presupuesto General de la Naci\u00f3n (PGN) para cubrir los d\u00e9ficits del sistema.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Incluso, con la reforma, esta tendencia no se revierte, lo que implica que se seguir\u00e1 dependiendo de m\u00e1s transferencias del Tesoro P\u00fablico o de los impuestos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cUna reforma param\u00e9trica es condici\u00f3n necesaria, pero no suficiente: debe complementarse con medidas que fortalezcan la recaudaci\u00f3n, mejoren el rendimiento de las inversiones y promuevan la equidad en la asignaci\u00f3n de beneficios\u201d, reconoce a su vez el estudio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Queda para el pr\u00f3ximo gobierno. El economista Rodrigo Ibarrola advirti\u00f3 que, incluso, el informe actuarial muestra que a partir del 2033 o 2034; es decir, en menos de 10 a\u00f1os, el d\u00e9ficit presentar\u00eda un crecimiento importante respecto a los a\u00f1os anteriores.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Afirm\u00f3 que, con la reforma, solo se detendr\u00eda el problema por unos a\u00f1os, por lo que quedar\u00eda como una tarea para el siguiente Gobierno.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEl aumento del d\u00e9ficit a\u00f1o a a\u00f1o en el escenario de reforma es mayor a partir de ese momento. Cinco a\u00f1os se va a reducir bastante el d\u00e9ficit sin los que se iban a jubilar. Entonces, ah\u00ed pusiste un stop (una pausa), congelaste ah\u00ed las nuevas jubilaciones hasta el 2031. A partir del 2034 la pendiente se vuelve m\u00e1s empinada en la l\u00ednea azul (escenario de reforma de todo el sistema)\u201d, afirm\u00f3 Ibarrola.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El estudio actuarial de la Caja Fiscal evidencia que el proyecto de reforma del MEF solo contendr\u00e1 el<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":757,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[],"post_badge":[],"class_list":["post-755","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nacionales"],"yoast_head":"\nReforma de Caja Fiscal contendr\u00eda crisis por solo 5 a\u00f1os, indica estudio - Radio Estaci\u00f3n - 92.9 Fm Caazap\u00e1 Nacionales Nacionales<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Radio Estaci\u00f3n - 92.9 Fm Caazap\u00e1 Nacionales Reforma de Caja Fiscal contendr\u00eda crisis por solo 5 a\u00f1os, indica estudio Nacionales\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/radioestacion.com.py\/index.php\/2026\/02\/03\/reforma-de-caja-fiscal-contendria-crisis-por-solo-5-anos-indica-estudio\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Reforma de Caja Fiscal contendr\u00eda crisis por solo 5 a\u00f1os, indica estudio - 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